For a background on the various EV market trends you can read our past articles:
The 6 trends from the Oct. 2021 article were:
- EV sales are booming and 2021 sales look likely to grow ~100%+ on 2020.
- Electric vehicle wait lists grow bigger and production delays, Tesla has the biggest backlog of reservations.
- Junior lithium miner takeovers or buy ins (especially in Argentina brine projects).
- EV metals shortages and price rises (especially lithium). Direct Lithium Extraction has gained momentum as the search for lithium widens to lower grade sources.
- A faster shift to lithium iron phosphate [LFP] battery chemistries is occurring in China, plus Tesla announced this week to shift all global production of standard range vehicles to LFP batteries.
- 2022 EV sales should be another boom year boosted by new EV factories.
The 4 trends from the Dec. 2021 article were:
- New EV and battery megafactories are on the way, led by Tesla (TSLA).
- The battle to secure lithium and key EV metals has begun – Led by China, but now the Russians are coming.
- USA plays catch up – President Biden’s policies likely to boost U.S EV sales in 2022 and beyond.
- Battery prices may actually rise in 2022 or 2023 due to dramatically higher EV metal costs.
A lot has happened since the above 2021 EV market trends articles. All of the above trends have continued to play out; however supply chain disruptions have slightly negatively impacted EV production and hence sales.
10 of the latest EV, battery and EV metal miner trends
1. Despite EV supply chain disruptions plugin EV sales remain strong, gaining significant market share in a weak conventional auto market
As shown in the table below global electric plugin car sales have been doing quite well, despite the supply chain (chips, materials), manufacturing and macro-economic concerns (Covid-19 lockdowns in China, war in Ukraine, interest rates rising etc.).
H1, 2022 global sales were 4.149m. Assuming the macro-environment does not get any worse, then H2 2022 is likely to add a further 6m sales, for a 2022 total of ~10m global plugin electric car sales.
Note: H2 EV sales are always stronger than H1.
Actual global plugin electric car sales reported so far in 2022
Source: Trend Investing model
Note: ~72% of electric car sales YTD were 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the balance being hybrids.
Note: April 2022 global EV sales were quite severely impacted by China Covid-19 lockdowns, notably in Shanghai.
Note: 2021 global light electric car sales were 6.75m and 8.3% global market share.
Our updated 2022 EV sales and market share forecast
As shown below our forecast is for 9.75m global plugin electric car sales in 2022 for 13% market share. 9.75m sales would equate to a 44% gain on 2021, a slowdown on 2021 sales gain of 108%, mostly due to supply chain and manufacturing constraints.
End 2025 market share forecast remains at 32% and end 2030 at 80%.
As shown below China electric car sales continue to go from strength to strength and lead the world.
On July 8, 2022 CNEVPOST reported:
China’s wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 571,000 units in June, surpassing last December’s 505,000 units and setting a new historical record, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
China NEV sales surge higher in H1, 2022 despite supply disruptions
2. Growing waiting lists and higher EV prices
Current electric car waiting lists (reservations) are hard to determine an exact figure as not all the information is made publicly available. Our best guesstimate is the global waiting list for electric cars is now somewhere towards 3m. The number would potentially be higher if several OEMs re-opened their ordering, having closed due to excess demand.
Unofficial site, Tesla Cybertruck reservation tracker is at 1,545,355, BYD Co (OTCPK:BYDDY) (OTCPK:BYDDF) is rumored to have over 500,000 reservations, Ford (F) Lightning is at least 200,000+, and then there are hundreds of EV brands in China to consider.
The total of the leading U.S EV manufacturers in the table below comes to 1.865m.
Recurrent Auto quoted reservations as of June 11, 2022
Source: Recurrent Auto website
In terms of electric car prices, virtually all companies have significantly raised their EV prices to counter rising input costs, especially higher EV metal prices.
3. The latest electric car designs are following Tesla and improving aerodynamics and efficiency. Manufacturing improvements and autonomous driving/safety features are also key trends
Car manufacturers globally have continued to copy market leader Tesla with ideas such as panoramic sunroof, large center screen display, and more recently improved aerodynamics.
In terms of manufacturing improvements Tesla and BYD Co have been leading with structural body packs that lessen weight by using the battery cells as a structure. Other improvements by Tesla have been larger giga presses, less parts and manufacturing steps, and faster manufacturing output. Of course, Tesla has also opened two new state of the art gigafactories (Berlin & Texas) in H1, 2022.
The Mercedes EQS has a sleek design to improve aerodynamics
Tesla Model S Plaid
4. Solar electric cars are making quite good progress
Lightyear recently showcased the production version of its Lightyear 0 SEV, which plans to begin production late 2022.
Sono Motors is at the prototype stage for its flagship Sion EV, planning for production in 2023.
The Tianjin solar EV was jointly developed in 2022 by 42 companies and three universities. The car solar module area is 8.1 square meters, far more than the Lightyear 0 with 5 square meters.
Aptera Motors is another leading solar EV company. It plans to bring a 3 wheel vehicle to market. It is said to have a range of 1,000 miles and the solar panels are capable to add up to 40 miles of solar powered driving per day.
The Tianjin solar EV – China’s first pure solar powered vehicle
5. Lithium-ion battery prices increase after declining the past decade
Despite the rising number of new gigafactories in the pipeline to 2032 (as of May 2022 sits at 304 gigafactories and 6,387.6 GWh of Li-ion battery capacity), battery prices have been increasing due to the increased cost of the EV raw materials; particularly, lithium, cobalt, and nickel.
On June 1, 2022 Bloomberg quoted:
Before the rally, battery prices were nearing levels that would make upfront costs of EVs competitive with traditional cars without state subsidies, BNEF said in a report Wednesday. But that’s now starting to change. Battery pack prices are set to rise this year for the first time in more than a decade, and broader inflation could severely delay a crucial tipping point where average battery prices fall below $100 a kilowatt-hour.
Bloomberg’s Li-ion battery pack price chart shows prices forecast to increase in 2022 to US$135/kWh (from US$132/kWh in 2021)
BMI is tracking a major demand wave and supply response for lithium-ion battery gigafactories – A massive 47% YoY growth is forecast to 2032
6. LFP chemistry is forecast to continue to gain market share, with new LFP batteries improving battery density and lasting longer than NMC/NCA. Structural battery pack also helps
Lithium Iron Phosphate (“LFP”) batteries have several advantages over NMC/NCA batteries, notably safety and cycle life (~3x longer), as well as being able to be regularly charged to 100%. LFP energy density has been improving as we have seen from recent news and is now not too far behind NMC/NCA:
- “Gotion High-Tech begins serial production of 210 Wh/kg LFP batteries… Gotion plans to bring LFP cells with an energy density of 230 Wh/kg to series production by the end of this…